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prediction markets
We quantify mispricing across Polymarket and Kalshi using statistical base rates and multi-model AI analysis. Updated daily at 9:25 PM UTC.
Today's Top Edges
View all →Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
The Fed is likely to maintain a stable interest rate trajectory barring unforeseen economic turmoil, diminishing the probabilit...
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
The Fed has paused twice in a row through April 2026 with rates at 3.50-3.75%, seven members project zero 2026 cuts, inflation ...
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
The Fed is currently holding steady at a 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range, with limited immediate pressure for deep cuts. Persis...
Track Record
Full history →How It Works
Statistical Anchor
Base rates from FRED, leading indicators, and cross-venue medians establish a quantitative prior.
AI Adjustment
Claude, GPT-4o, and Gemini adjust the anchor by up to ±15pp based on news, evidence, and resolution analysis.
Edge Detection
Markets where our fair value diverges from the market price by ≥5¢ surface as actionable edges.
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