Find the markets where
the crowd might be wrong.
AI-powered research for prediction markets. Statistical models anchor every estimate. LLM synthesis explains the evidence. Every source linked. Every number traceable. Every prediction tracked publicly.
How Edge Finder works
From raw market data to actionable research in three steps.
Scan
We track 2,000+ prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi every 30 minutes. Volume, price, liquidity, resolution criteria — all captured.
Analyze
Statistical models (base rates, FRED data, cross-venue pricing) anchor every probability. Three LLMs synthesize news, social sentiment, and economic data. Blended fair value = (stat × 65%) + (AI × 35%).
Deliver
You get a research brief that shows its work. Every source linked. Bull and bear cases. Risk/reward math. Key dates. And a clear "when this thesis breaks" trigger.
See it in action
Here's today's top analysis, generated automatically. Real data. Real sources.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
The Fed is likely to maintain a stable interest rate trajectory barring unforeseen economic turmoil, diminishing the probability of an emergency rate cut before 2027.
If You Agree With This Analysis
BULLISHSuggested position: YES at 12¢
A sudden major economic downturn or global geopolitical crisis like a prolonged war could lead to unexpected emergency actions.
Research only — not trading advice. You decide.
Not another signal service.
Signal services tell you what to buy. We show you the evidence and let you decide.
Statistical Anchoring
LLMs don't guess probabilities from scratch. A deterministic statistical model — base rates, FRED data, cross-venue pricing — runs first. The AI can only adjust the anchor, never replace it.
Every Source Linked
No "trust me" claims. Every data point in every brief links to its source — BLS, FRED, Reuters, the Federal Reserve. You can verify everything we show you.
Public Track Record
Every prediction is scored publicly with Brier scores and calibration curves. When we're wrong, you see it. No cherry-picking. No hiding bad calls.
Tells You When It's Wrong
Every brief includes a "When This Thesis Breaks" condition — the specific trigger that would invalidate the analysis. Most tools never tell you when to stop listening.
Public Track Record
Every prediction we make is tracked and scored publicly. No hiding. No cherry-picking. We're building our track record in the open — check back as markets resolve.
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Prediction markets research · Updated daily · Not financial advice