Edge Finder

Markets

Wed, Apr 15, 2026runs 9:25 PM UTC
Analyzed
41
today
Avg Edge
+10¢
absolute
Brier Score
lower is better
Method
Stat+LLM
65/35 blend
Platform:
Confidence:

4 markets with ≥5¢ edge today

Polymarketmacro
Dec 31, 26

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Market 12¢EF 23¢+11¢
high$100K· Base Rate

The Fed is likely to maintain a stable interest rate trajectory barring unforeseen economic turmoil, diminishing the probabilit...

Polymarketmacro
Jun 17, 26

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

Market 11¢EF 22¢+11¢
high$160K· Base Rate

The Fed has paused twice in a row through April 2026 with rates at 3.50-3.75%, seven members project zero 2026 cuts, inflation ...

Polymarketmacro
Dec 31, 26

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?

Market 13¢EF 22¢+10¢
medium$180K· Base Rate

The Fed is currently holding steady at a 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range, with limited immediate pressure for deep cuts. Persis...

Polymarketmacro
Dec 9, 26

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Market 14¢EF 21¢+6¢
medium$904K· Base Rate

The historical base rate of 20.5% for Fed rate hikes aligns reasonably with current market pricing of 14.5%, suggesting modest ...

PolymarketmacroResolves December 31, 2026

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Market
12¢
Current YES
AI Fair Value
23¢
S:26 L:19
Edge
+11¢
Confidence
HIGH
0.70

The Fed is likely to maintain a stable interest rate trajectory barring unforeseen economic turmoil, diminishing the probability of an emergency rate cut before 2027.

Trade on Polymarket

If You Agree With This Analysis

BULLISH

Suggested position: YES at 12¢

IF RIGHT
+88¢
per contract
IF WRONG
-12¢
per contract
EXP. VALUE
+11¢
per contract
Key Dates
Invalid DateFOMC Meeting - Rates SteadySignals stability in monetary policy
When This Thesis Breaks

A sudden major economic downturn or global geopolitical crisis like a prolonged war could lead to unexpected emergency actions.

Research only — not trading advice. You decide.